By J.T. Wilcox | Senior Writer
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And then there were five.
Five teams are all that remain going into the fourth week of the playoffs.
These are the teams that were able to be great under major pressure – up to this point. These are the teams that caught some breaks, but also made their own breaks.
These are the teams that understand winning means taking care of the little things; not just on game day, but also during the week – in the classroom and on the practice field.
It’s interesting looking at the teams that are left because each one has a different storyline. But the funny thing is, they each share a distinct storyline – at some point of the season, they were doubted.
Think about it: St. Thomas Aquinas had too many injuries; Flanagan’s and Central’s offenses were too inconsistent; Columbus, while very talented, had to show it was ready to make the jump into the true upper echelon; Booker T. had to many players leave.
But here each one is.
The journey doesn’t end here. Things have to be taken up a notch.
I had a solid week in round three. My belief that our football is better than anyone else’s football left me with a 5-1 record. Hats to Hallandale for the season that it had, the Chargers fought to the bitter end and should be very proud of all that they accomplished this year.
Like I said guys, take advantage of what’s in front of you. The things that you do – or don’t do – in these crucial moments will stick you for a long, long time.
Because “dabbing” is for winners…
Record last week: 5-1
Playoffs record: 31-6 (.837 Correct Pick Percentage)
Four games picked this week with all of them in the Bald Predictions Spotlight.
(3) St. Thomas Aquinas Raiders (11-1) vs. Braden River Pirates (13-0)
Friday at Bradenton Braden River Field, 7:30pm – Class 7A State Semifinal
Talk about contrasting teams; well, more so a contrast in football histories.
You have St. Thomas Aquinas as the perennial powerhouse program with a rich history and a laundry list of successful football alumni.
Then there’s Braden River, a school that’s just 10 years old and is enjoying sustained football success for the first time. The Pirates will come into Friday’s game winners of 23 of their past 24 games.
St. Thomas Aquinas has been bitten hard by the injury bug this season, but the Raiders have continued to find a way to manufacture wins. That speaks volumes to the coaching and development that is going on there; the fact that so many starters can go down and the team continues to roll along is almost mind-boggling.
I’ve been impressed the most with Aquinas running back Jaxson Kincaide. He overcame his own injury and has stepped up to carry the load out of the backfield for this team.
Looking at Braden River, it is a team that wants to run the ball first and foremost.
The Pirates use a “running back by committee”, junior Raymond Thomas leads (900 yards and 15 touchdowns) while sophomore Deshaun Fenwick and senior Jaylin Austin both have run for more than 500 yards and 10 touchdowns this season.
With rushing numbers like that, you’d expect Braden River’s offensive line to be a very good – and it is. The Pirates have a group of maulers up front – averaging 6-foot-3, 286 pounds across – and Aquinas’ defensive line is going to have to find a way to anchor down and clog up the running lanes.
Talk about a time to wish Nick Bosa was healthy.
Still, where St. Thomas can get the edge in this game is its offense. The Raiders have to be productive in its drives – even if its field goals – getting points on long drives is going to be paramount.
The x-factor will be if Aquinas is able to get explosive plays from Sam Bruce, Dominic Thieman and Trevon Grimes. Braden River will have a hard time recreating their skill sets in practice and an even harder time keeping those guys under wraps for 48 minutes.
I can see this game being very close throughout though; being on the road always comes with a set of potentially detrimental variables.
But I think the Raiders will make the plays necessary to come out victorious.
Raiders move on to the Class 7A state title game.
Bald Prediction = St. Thomas wins 28-24
(4) Central Rockets (10-2) vs. Naples Golden Eagles (11-1)
Friday at Traz Powell Stadium, 7:30pm – Class 6A State Semifinal
The Rockets are still standing.
That’s the thing about programs like Central’s – you haven’t beaten them until you beat and they’re not going to go away quietly.
The scary thing – for anyone Central has left to play – is that it looks like the Rockets have finally figured things out offensively.
That’s been the thing that has made people question the Rockets this season.
Defensively, Central has one of the best units in the nation. But the offense, which does have some talented pieces, had to find the right mix and gain some confidence.
Now Naples comes to town and the Golden Eagles are another familiar foe for the Rockets.
Naples has a gifted running back in senior Carlin Fils-Aime. The 5-foot-11, 180-pound ball carrier is currently committed to Tennessee and is easily Naples’ best offensive weapon.
Also, the Golden Eagles are well-coached under Bill Kramer – who’s been with Naples for more than a decade.
I’m not really concerned with how Central’s defense will fare in this game. I know The “Roc Boys” will put the clamps on Fils-Aime and make it a hard night on the Naples offense overall.
Central’s offense has to put together another solid performance though.
Quarterback Jerrod Thomas has played some of his best football in the past two weeks – totaling six touchdowns in two games – and with him being able to make plays in the passing game, Central has been able to find running lanes for its stable of running backs.
It hurts that Rockets receiver Jernard Phillips appears to be out for the remainder of the playoffs, but they still have Darnell Salomon, Carmoni Green and Kahmanie Carter to make plays on the outside.
I also like the way that Central is finding a way to get freshman James Cook more involved in the offense – using him as a ball carrier as well as a receiver either split out wide or out of the backfield.
Thomas’ performance under center is going to be the biggest thing to watch. If he shines again, Central will shine; if he struggles, Central’s offense will struggle.
I can see this being a game where the Rockets’ defense puts some points on the board – either a safety or a pick-six – and ultimately gives Central a hard-fought victory.
Rockets roll on.
Bald Prediction = Central wins 20-14
(7) Columbus Explorers (12-1) vs. (10) Flanagan Falcons (10-2)
Friday at Tropical Park, 7:30pm – Class 8A State Semifinal
This is a game that I’ve been mulling over for a while.
Going back to last year’s Class 8A state semifinal matchup between these two teams and the thing that jumps out to me is Columbus’ coaching.
Granted, the Explorers were what I’d call a “team of destiny” last year, still I think it was Columbus’ coaching that it in position to “upset” Flanagan last year.
This year’s Flanagan team does have a couple of things working in its favor.
One, the Dirty Birds are bitter.
Last season’s showdown with Columbus was all Flanagan’s players and coaches could talk about for while after that.
Two, Flanagan will have a healthy Devin Bush Jr. at their disposal this time. DBJ was unavailable last year, as he sat out the game with a broken wrist.
I was interested in seeing how Flanagan’s offense would look coming into the playoffs.
The Falcons offense has been a bit of an issue this season. Granted, starting quarterback Kato Nelson missed time recovering from offseason surgery; still the offensive line has struggled which is why they haven’t been able to run the ball effectively and had issues getting the ball into their outside playmakers’ hands.
Columbus has been trending in the right direction lately. The Explorers surprised a lot of people with how they made easy work of South Dade last week and they’ve looked very strong overall during the playoffs.
I knew the healthy return of Alejandro Ros would prove to be a big plus.
There are a lot of things at play coming into this game.
Yes, Flanagan has a chip on its shoulder and it’ll have Bush Jr. patrolling the middle of the field. But Columbus is, quite frankly, an even more talented team this year than it was last year. And I think the Explorers have played the tougher schedule overall and are a bit more battle-tested.
Coaching once again will be a big factor. And it’s not to say that Flanagan’s coaching staff isn’t a good one – because it is and they have some talented coaches on staff – however, it is to say that Columbus’ staff is both talented and experienced and I think that gives the Explorers the edge.
Another close game, just like last year, and I am going to call my shot again and say that Columbus kicker Corey Pastor wins this game for his team.
Bald Prediction = Columbus wins 17-14
Booker T. Washington Tornadoes (8-5) vs. Raines Vikings (12-1)
Saturday at Orlando Citrus Bowl, 7:07pm – Class 4A State Championship
Give Booker T. Washington, its coaches and players, a lot of credit.
The Tornadoes could have easily folded up their tents and went home; they could have let all of the outside noise creep in and cause dissention within the program, but they didn’t.
From the start, Booker T. said, “those who stay will be champions” and now the Tornadoes are on the doorstep of winning another state title.
Over the past three weeks Booker T. has been playing a very good brand of football. Freshman quarterback Daniel Richardson has shown tremendous growth and he has complete control of the Tornadoes offense.
I really like how Booker T. has been running the ball. Being able to establish the run game allows you to wear down a defense, which leads to being able to grind out the clock in late-game situations – which is exactly how Booker T. closed the door on Cocoa last week.
For the first time in four years, Booker T. won’t be playing Jacksonville Bolles in the championship game. This time it’s Jacksonville Raines, the team that has been knocked out by Bolles for the past couple of years.
Raines is a pretty athletic team. The Vikings have a tough defense that is anchored by middle linebacker Michael Pinckney. Pinckney, a 6-foot-1, 215-pound sideline-to-sideline tackler, is committed to the University of Miami and 6-foot-3, 235-pound defensive end Jaquan Bailey – a Florida commit – is someone that the Tornadoes O-Line will have to make sure they keep away from Richardson.
The Vikings offensive attack is fairly balanced. Quarterback Augie DeBiase has thrown 21 touchdowns this season and running back Alex Rutledge is a 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown rusher.
Where Booker T. will have the advantage, though, is overall team speed.
I would venture to say that Booker T. will be the fastest team that Raines has seen this year. And I can confidently say that the Tornadoes have played the tougher schedule.
Linebackers Jaquan Beaver and Marlon Pelote will have big games for Booker T. and I could see either Raymond Flanders or Darrius “Jelly” Scott being named the game’s MVP.
I think this game follows the same path last week’s Booker T.-Cocoa game did: the Tornadoes jump out early; Raines will fight back a bit; then Booker T. takes full control and grinds the out clock.
Those who stayed, will be champions.
Bald Prediction = Booker T. wins 31-21
